What we have found

The copies we received run to Sunday 27 September in all three files. They do not show how soon figures are normally entered: 27 September could be a cut-off, the last update or the normal point of entry. We will learn this from the paperwork this week.

The January to April production workbooks have production but no sales per product, so sales by product are available from late April.

Deluxe sales swing by about 650 loaves across the week: about 3,325 on an average Wednesday and about 3,974 on an average Saturday. Production barely changes by weekday (about 3,540 to 3,790).

Baking the same amount every day means some days run short and others carry more. Production is about 100 loaves a day above recorded sales, which is explained by staff bread (about 20) and damages (about 80); stock stays flat at about one day's sales.

From 24 April to 27 September, valued at the current price list:

• Damaged in the bakery: about ZMW 30,600 a month.
• Returned damaged from the routes: about ZMW 30,300 a month.
• Together about 2% of sales value.

Returned bread costs as much as bakery damage. As a share of what is made, returns are highest for rolls (11%), sponge (6%) and cinnamon rolls (5%).

Deluxe flour use is recorded at about 122 kg per batch and output at 216 loaves per batch, less logged damages. This is a sensible standard, but it means the records cannot show whether a batch really gives 216 good loaves. Counting good loaves from a few batches is the only way to know the real yield.

Comparing each 08:30 count with the previous day's closing stock, 271 of 286 product counts are identical; the differences are mostly from April and early May. Raw-material counts differ from the books on about half the items. An exact match for thousands of loaves is unusual: either counting is exact or the count is written from the book. Raise as a question about how the count is done, not an accusation (question D1).

Across 17 physical counts (20 May to 25 September), flour on the shelf was within 77 kg of the book over 353,758 kg used (0.02%). Yeast was 72 kg more than the book (0.9%), which suggests actual yeast use is a little below the recipe figure. The store itself looks well controlled.

• Production agrees between the stock report and the production workbook on 99% of days where both have a figure.
• Sales per product agree exactly on about 60% of days; monthly Deluxe totals differ by 0.1% to 2.5%.
• "Damages" means bakery damages in the stock report, but bakery plus returned damages in the production workbook.

One agreed source per figure would save time and avoid confusion.

Tested on every day from 22 May to 27 September, using only earlier days each time:

The gain comes mainly from following the weekday pattern. Days that sold out understate demand, so the estimate will improve if unmet orders are noted.

From 1 May to 27 September, the Gate column is about 37% of route sales value (typically 30 to 45%); the four van routes share the rest.